WAS ANDREW RIGHT? Maggie Gallagher

Andrew Sullivan has posted a correction to his WSJ piece on his website. As someone who writes a lot myself and sometimes makes mistakes I am sure it was an innocent error. On the other hand, I finally tracked down a paper copy (which contains more detailed information) of the USA Today story on October 7 reporting the poll results and they are not (in my opinion) really very good for SSM advocates.

Certainly the next generation is the weak link on this marriage idea, take as much comfort as you can from that.

According to the USA Today poll, 32 percent of young people think gay marriage will change society for the worse, 24 percent think it will change society for the better, and 43 percent think it will have no effect--the latter being a rather misguided opnion that both Andrew and I would reject I imagine. Note than even in this group more young people see harm than benefits.

Among those age 30-49, on the other hand, 11 percent think that it will make society better and 42 percent think it will make society worse. In other words, among those who care about this issue (as opposed to thinking it doesn't matter) the margin is 4 to 1 against gay marriage.

When asked, "Do you think gay or lesbian couples should--or should not--be allowed all the same legal rights as married couples in every state, or does it not matter to you?" Young people were more favorable, but only 45 percent actually agreed (breakdowns below).

Bottom line: The normal way of reading a poll like this would be to note that by an almost 5 to 1 margin (see below), Americans overall are more likely to say same-sex marriage will hurt society rather than benefit it. And only 32 percent of all Americans support giving gay couples the legal rights of marriage.

Lumping people who don't care with people who do care to create an "even split" on gay marriage is sort of odd--certainly not usual in reporting polls. Certainly the large group of Americans who seem to think the definition of marriage hardly matters is a problem both for advocates and opponents of SSM.

Not to mention for our culture of marriage.

October 7, 2003, USA Today, at p. 21A.

"Do you think that allowing two people of the same sex to legally marry will change society for the better, have no effect or change society for the worse?"

Age 18-29
Better: 24%
No Effect: 43%
Worse: 32%

Age 30-49
Better: 11%
No Effect: 42%
Worse: 46%

Age 50-64
Better: 5%
No Effect: 42%
Worse: 52%

Age 65+
Better: 2%
No Effect: 26%
Worse: 64%

All Ages
Better: 10%
No Effect: 40%
Worse: 48%

"Do you think gay or lesbian couples should--or should not--be allowed all the same legal rights as married couples in every state, or does it not matter to you?"

Age 18-29
Should be allowed: 45%
Not be allowed: 22%
Doesn't Matter: 32%

Age 30-49
Should be allowed: 30%
Not be allowed: 35%
Doesn't matter: 35%

Age 50-64
Should be allowed: 31%
Not be allowed: 40%
Doesn't matter: 29%

Age 65+
Should be allowed: 24%
Not be allowed: 41%
Doesn't matter: 31%

All Ages
Should be allowed: 32%
Not be allowed: 35%
Doesn't matter: 32%

posted by maggie at 11:15 AM VOTE

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