GAY MARRIAGE VOTE COULD PROVE POLITICALLY PERILOUS: From the Gannett News Service

When the Senate debates a constitutional amendment next week limiting marriage to a man and a woman, the outcome might not change the law of the land.

But it is likely to have a political effect in the next five months, as campaigns around the country deal with the ongoing fight over gay marriage and civil unions.

The amendment, scheduled for the Senate floor next week, would state that only unions of a man and a woman qualify as marriages. Judges in several states, most notably Massachusetts, ruled recently they see no justification for denying gay and lesbian couples the legal rights of straight married couples. Changing the Constitution would mean rights like property ownership, medical decision-making and child custody legally could be limited to straight couples.

Conservatives say the amendment is necessary to protect marriage, which they believe the court rulings have threatened. Opponents say it would write discrimination into the Constitution and could be used to block secular civil unions.

Even Republicans sponsoring the amendment and scheduling the debate say it has little chance of passage. The proposal needs 67 votes to be passed to the House and a possible vote in state legislatures. ...

"I think it could be a sleeper issue," Larry Sabato, a politics professor who directs the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "I don't think it will determine the election, but I think it's more of an issue than the Washington-New York crowd thinks because they're in places where gays are almost completely accepted and where gay marriage is considered de rigeur."

He puts the topic at No. 3 in people's minds behind the dueling issues of national security and the economy.

Yet, seven in 10 registered voters say the gay marriage debate shouldn't be a part of election year politics, according to a CBS News Poll taken May 20 to 23.

In the same poll, more than half said they would vote for someone who does not share their views on gay marriage, but the trend is stronger among registered voters who consider themselves independents or Democrats. Fewer than half of the Republicans felt the same way, even including the poll's margin of error. ...

In some states where gay marriage already has come before courts, the issue could carry more political weight. In Oregon, one of 19 presidential battleground states, a ballot initiative would ban civil unions.

The issue also could pose a problem for incumbent lawmakers like Daschle, who faces a tough challenge from Republican John Thune as he seeks re-election in South Dakota. ...

Democratic leaders have not decided how to handle the debate on the amendment. They could try to prevent it from coming to the floor or could try to hold together the 34 votes needed to keep it from passing.

Still, some Democrats worry that the party won't come up with a powerful argument on why lawmakers are voting against the amendment. Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn., said the party risks ceding the rhetorical battle to conservatives.

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posted by Eve at 12:28 PM VOTE

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