WHY BUSH MIGHT WIN HAWAII: Andy Blom

[Ah, the ol' "might." --Eve]

IT'S THE ISSUE that just won't stay in the closet. Republican politicians run skittishly from talking about same-sex marriage. The polls from Hawaii indicate they should be highlighting it.

Hawaii elects Republicans about as often as the Red Sox win the World Series. Only twice since statehood has a Republican president carried Hawaii (Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984). Yet the latest polls show Bush leading Kerry by a percentage point. National and state Democrats are in a tizzy. How can this be? The unknown factor may be Republican Mike Gabbard's campaign in Hawaii's second congressional district.

Gabbard is making same-sex marriage a centerpiece of his race to unseat one-term incumbent Democrat Ed Case. Hawaii was the one of first states tested on the same-sex marriage issue, after an activist state supreme court ruled in 1993 that denying marital status to gay couples was unconstitutional. Voters overturned the decision in 1998, passing a constitutional amendment to forbid gay marriage. Gabbard was a leader in the fight for the amendment and became a noted spokesmen against same-sex marriage. Two years ago he was elected to the Honolulu City Council, one of the most important and influential elected offices in the state. His wife was elected to the statewide school board and his daughter to the state legislature. This year, Gabbard decided to take on Rep. Case.

Gabbard is well liked and respected in Hawaii, and certainly not a single-issue candidate. He and his family have been dedicated public servants. But the importance of the same-sex constitutional battle, and its continuing effect, have motivated his campaign. In an overwhelmingly liberal, Democratic state, against the strong support of the media, labor, and the state Democratic party, the amendment to the Hawaii constitution banning same-sex marriage passed with over 70 percent of the vote (the first of many such state measures passed with similar margins).

A combination of factors contributed to that 1998 success. Christian and conservative voters were dramatically energized. But even an energized conservative Christian electorate is a distinct minority in Hawaii. And Hawaiian culture has traditionally been tolerant of homosexuality. But the issue, and the campaign, touched on the family. And, with the family threatened, Hawaii's second-generation immigrants, union workers, lifelong Democrats voted against their party leaders.

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posted by Eve at 5:52 PM VOTE

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