UNEXPECTED BABY BOOM: From Newsweek's international edition

Here's a little test. Which European country will have the largest population in the middle of the 21st century? (And remember, this is likely to give the nation added political heft in the European Union.) Could it be Britain? A dynamic economy, low unemployment and sturdy consumer confidence seem likely to spur the optimism that often accompanies childbearing in wealthy nations. How about Germany? Unification was akin to a couple's making a baby--and it inspired hope, at least initially, for a better future. What about Italy, the land of the beloved bambino, regardless of the nation's periodic booms or busts? No, the most populated nation in Western Europe in 2050 is expected to be... France.

Old Europe? Yes, indeed. France, with the second largest population in the EU, is engaged in what, by European standards, registers as a remarkable population boom. The nation leads in the number of newborns and has the second highest birthrate, after much smaller (and more Roman Catholic) Ireland. The results of France's 2004 Census are out—and fresh forecasts based on the numbers paint some 75 million people into the French landscape by midcentury, compared with 62.5 million today. That's at least 10 percent higher than the last round of forecasts, based on the 1999 Census. By contrast, Britain is stagnating, Germany is expected to lose 11 million people by midcentury and the number of Italians may cascade from 57.5 million to a Poland-esque 43 million. In fact, nearly all the EU's population growth in 2003 came from France--211,000 out of 216,000. ...

And what is going on? Like Italians, the French live in a family-friendly society. So why a French baby boom and an Italian bust? The difference apparently comes from policy and social supports that lessen pressure on would-be parents. Those who work fewer hours, have more job security, free day care and medical coverage are less likely to feel anguish over their children's basic needs. And more than most European countries, France offers all that, not to mention generous parental leave. Compared with elsewhere, says Dumont, France "allows families to better reconcile their professional and private lives." It's no coincidence, he adds, that countries with the fewest familial supports, like Italy and Spain, also have the lowest birthrates.

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posted by Eve at 3:45 PM VOTE

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