...But it's not just TV. Judging by People magazine stories on celebrity bumps, babies dominate pop culture these days. Interestingly, babies are dominating the real world, too. In 2007, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, the total fertility rate in the USA hit 2.12 lifetime births per woman, a bit higher than 2006, and much higher than the 1.74 births per woman in 1976.

Of course, the recession could change the trend, but annual changes are less important than this long-term reality: The U.S. is one of the few developed countries to have a fertility rate above replacement level — that is, the roughly 2.1 births per woman necessary to sustain a population. Demographers debate the reasons for this, but given our recent fiscal policies, there's a case to be made that not only is a high birthrate a good sign, we should be hoping it rises at least a bit more.

Certainly, surveying childbearing across the developed world, America is a fecund outlier. When I hauled my 1-year-old to Germany and Austria recently (fertility rates of 1.4), restaurants seemed puzzled by my requests for milk. Supposedly child-friendly Sweden posts a rate of just 1.67; Catholic Italy and Spain just 1.3; only France (1.98) comes close among the big economies.

Demographers have many theories, good and bad, for our exceptionality. The USA does have a lamentably high teen pregnancy rate. We also have many unplanned pregnancies among grown-ups who should know better.

But accidents don't explain everything. Across the developed world, many young women say they want two kids. In the U.S., unlike in Europe, the average woman is quite likely to hit that — and sometimes go over. In a 2008 paper, Steven Martin of the University of Maryland noted an increase in extremely affluent women having three or more kids. Judging from TLC's programming, we could be more accepting of larger families who can support their children (if not cases like "octomom" Nadya Suleman's). If millions of young moms watch these shows, the showcased families might even move the idea of "normal" up.

But compared with Japan's 1.2 rate, even getting the bulk of families to the desired two kids is noteworthy. What's most fascinating is that the USA has managed to do this even as the majority of women work outside the home. Our fertility rate rose 22% from 1976 to 2007, as women's workforce participation rates rose an equal amount (from 47.3% in 1976 to about 59% now — roughly a 25% increase).

Labels: culture, demographics, economics, family size

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